The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is placing immediate pressure on food systems around the globe, most deeply impacting the developing world.
The rise in food prices globally stems from the serious disruption in passage of energy and fertilizer through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as significant increases in oil and gas prices. Even without the current crisis, food security is an endemic problem; the United Nations estimates one in 12 people worldwide face hunger.
A renewed free flow of fertilizer, its component products, and energy sources are key to mitigating any worsening impact. Smart technology, better farming practices, and market access also have the potential to help bridge the food security gap.
The challenge is clear: About one-third of globally traded fertilizer, particularly nitrogen and phosphate inputs, moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and prices on fertilizers have soared 25% to 40% for end users since the conflict began.
As the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve, the United States and its partners have the capacity, tools and experience to blunt the impact of the current crisis and sustain agricultural production both here in the United States and in countries where food security threatens lives.
Fertilizer costs aren’t just one-off hits – many farmers will be unable to bear the increase and will reduce fertilizer use, resulting in lower yields and, thus, higher food prices to consumers. Farmers are also facing steep energy costs, increasing the price of transport and production across the agricultural value chain.
While most American farmers had already purchased their fertilizer for the spring planting season prior to the conflict’s inception, about 20% of American agriculture producers didn’t. And around the world, farmers, especially small-scale producers across Africa and in countries like Pakistan, India, and Sri Lanka, are facing enormous price hikes just as they prepare to plant.
The Trump Administration has already taken several key steps designed to support American farmers.
In March, the administration announced a short-term waiver of the Jones Act, allowing foreign-flagged vessels to move fuel, fertilizer, and other materials between U.S. ports, which expands access, and subsequently lowers costs for shippers. The administration also issued sanctions waivers for U.S. purchases of petrochemical products from Venezuela, including fertilizer and fertilizer precursors, and lifted sanctions on three companies in Belarus that produce a crucial ingredient in fertilizer. On April 18, the Trump administration also renewed a roughly 30 day waiver allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil, currently held at sea.
Previously, in December, the U.S. Department of Agriculture offered $12 billion in bridge payments to American farmers, designed to address market disruptions.
Farmers, both here in the United States and around the world, have faced this issue before. After Russia’s full-scale invasion in Ukraine in 2022, many agricultural countries were forced to switch from fertilizer produced in Ukraine to that from Gulf countries. Then, as now, supply chains adjust, and producers adapt. As the globe faces this ripple effect, shocks can be managed with steady leadership.
On top of the support for U.S. farmers, America can also take action to help those around the world – not only to mitigate today’s current shock, but to prevent it from cascading into a broader food crisis that will hit the most vulnerable around the world.
Over the past decade, the United States has invested heavily in global food security initiatives and built robust and crisis-tested delivery mechanisms through organizations like the World Food Program. Immediately supporting these systems with targeted, time-bound support to help smallholder farmers maintain fertilizer use through the current planting cycles will help preserve harvests and stabilize global food supplies.
As countries continue to focus on their own agricultural resilience, including improving production, leveraging technology, and adopting more efficient practices, the United States can keep investing in promoting agricultural best practices and the export of American know-how and support for agricultural technology.
As American farmers know, improved seed varieties and farming techniques can sustain crop yields even under stress. The United States can advance these efforts through U.S. partnerships in agricultural extension programs, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service, as well as support for market access.
The current disruption also highlights the continued importance of geographically diversified production. The United States can play a convening role, supporting international efforts in development financing, private investment, technical expertise, and partnerships to accelerate projects already in motion.
Advances in technology can facilitate governmental and international organizations’ real-time tracking of fertilizer availability, planting patterns and potential hotspots. The United States has been at the forefront of building these systems and can continue to strengthen them, ensuring that support from the U.S. taxpayer via this type of assistance reaches the right place at the right time.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a disruption and the impact – globally – on hunger through fertilizer and fuel shortages will ultimately be determined by its duration. However, with pragmatic and practical steps, the United States can help ensure that farmers around the world, including the most vulnerable, can continue to plant, markets can continue to function, and food will continue to reach those who need it most.
