Russia’s efforts to cultivate African countries for security, economic, and diplomatic inroads will be on display at the end of the month during the Third Russia-Africa Summit in Moscow. It will gather heads of state from across the continent and provide an opportunity to gauge African leaders’ willingness to diversify international partnerships, even with authoritarian regimes. The summit last took place in 2019 and 2023.
As at any summit, there will be pageantry and speeches, long communiques, and photo after photo of handshakes at the Oct. 28-29 event. However, as Russia increasingly aligns with China, Iran, and North Korea – creating an unofficial alliance of authoritarian regimes known as CRINK – and continues to wage an unprovoked war against Ukraine, it’s worth watching whether Russia emerges from the summit with deeper relationships that actually translate into economic concessions, military entanglements, and tangible manipulation.
For the United States and our allies, here are four things to watch:
Security
Russia has established itself in the security space through its deployment of Africa Corps, née Wagner Group, a private military company that is both funded and directed from the Kremlin, as the Bush Institute examined in a 2025 series Unparalleled Partnerships.
From forays in Sudan to its recent interventions in the Sahel, Russia is actively stamping its presence – and preferences – in fragile countries with weak institutions. In many of these places, governments and nonstate actors are seeking alternatives to traditional Western partners and their requirements for accountability, respect for human rights, and democratic institutions.
As Moscow meets with leaders, look out for announcements of new defense agreements, including “joint training,” arms and materiel deals, or indications that Russia’s government-funded and backed mercenaries in Africa Corps will be stepping into additional countries and conflicts.
Resources
While Russia’s economic footprint on the continent remains smaller than another member of CRINK, China, Moscow’s targeted approach merits a close assessment, especially with possible bilateral agreements negotiated at the summit.
Currently, Russia is focused on deals involving access to minerals, energy, military provisions, and arms sales – all of which provide Russia with not only economic opportunities, but political leverage that makes countries vulnerable to exploitation.
During high-level consultations in July that preceded the summit, the African Union and Russia highlighted investment and trade as priorities. While China is best known for paving diplomatic relations with easy credit terms, Russia is both poised and eager to make inroads to lock in partners in intermeshed webs of trade deals, weapon sales, and security relationships.
Multilateral gambits
Moscow consistently presents itself as vocal champion of African sovereignty and a more significant African role in international institutions. It’s a rare Russian statement that doesn’t tout “African solutions for African problems” – and this summit will be no different.
At the July consultations, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov again supported United Nations reform (also a priority of the U.S. administration), but Lavrov also verbally – at least – backed permanent representation from the continent on the Security Council. While it’s unclear if these pledges will translate into actual African support for Russian political positions at the U.N. or Russian personnel serving in senior roles at the U.N. as well, CRINK’s careful manipulation of potential partners for maneuvering in multilateral institutions is growing.
Multipolarity
African governments have their own wildly diverse interests and national priorities and are increasingly working in a multipolar world – seeking partnerships with countries in Europe, the Gulf States, and the United States as well as CRINK nations like China and Iran. So Washington shouldn’t make the mistake of viewing the summit as a battleground between the United States and Russia.
As the summit unfolds, the United States shouldn’t fall into the trap of asking “Why did Russia secure that trade deal?” or “How could that country have signed an infrastructure agreement with Russia?” Instead, the United States should both consider and take action to offer a better, more transparent, and more democratic alternative.
The bottom line
While attendance at the summit will generate the headlines – What heads of state travel to Moscow? Who gets the bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin? – tangible implementation of announcements will illustrate the truth.
The questions we should ask are these: Is Russia establishing durable relationships, and on what terms? What do individual African governments understand they are gaining? And, most importantly, what does this mean for U.S. interests and how can America engage with credible, sustained alternatives?
