Legal immigration continues to face headwinds. Policy changes have slowed normal visa processing, paused visa issuance in certain countries, and proposed high fees for certain highly skilled immigrants. These and other changes have had a chilling effect on America’s ability to admit new workers that our economy needs.
Foreign-born workers who are already in the United States have been greatly impacted. Many of these immigrants were on temporary but legal statuses – immigration parole, a pending asylum claim, or Temporary Protected Status are good examples. Through successive executive branch actions, these individuals have lost the legal protections they had that permitted them to live and work in the United States.
These policies make it more difficult for people who have followed laws and regulations to continue to comply with them.
In a new report for Third Way, Sarah Pierce and Frank Sharry bluntly state the consequences:
By the end of Trump’s second term, these policies will cut legal immigration by 33% to 50% – 1.5 million to 2.4 million fewer legal immigrants. Meanwhile, net migration may have already reached zero. The damage is already visible inside US Citizenship & Immigration Services (USCIS), which is on track to adjudicate fewer applications in 2026 than in any year in more than a decade, while its backlog has swelled to a record 12.1 million pending cases.
Congress continues to outsource immigration policy to the executive branch. The result is that many immigrants wanting to live and work in the United States are at the mercy of a patchwork of temporary statuses and the posture of whichever party holds the executive branch.
It’s tempting to think that this is only a problem for the immigrants. But the schools and companies that are recruiting for the future are hurt by outdated policies and uncertainty around potential future executive actions.
It benefits all Americans to have a legal immigration system that ensures our future prosperity, vitality, and security. Time is running out in this legislative session, but the next Congress will have an opportunity, regardless of who is in the majority, to undertake a serious and much needed reform of our immigration system.
Figure of the Month
$103,265
The Trump Administration has proposed a $103,265 fee for most new applications for H-1B visas for skilled foreign workers, including from those already in the United States, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Data Dive
- The United States admitted just 10,258 refugees in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2026, down from 38,102 in the entirety of fiscal year 2025 and 100,034 in all of fiscal year 2024, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of State Department data. All but three of the refugees admitted in fiscal year 2026 came from South Africa.
- A new National Foundation for American Policy brief estimates that the employment-based green card backlog exceeds 1.2 million and that some applicants filing in 2026 could wait as long as 179 years for a green card.
- About 23% fewer student visas were issued in 2025 than in 2024, according to State Department data analyzed by Inside Higher Ed. The decline accelerated after the Trump Administration paused student visa interviews in May to introduce new social media screening requirements, with F-1 visas for degree-seeking students falling 33.4% over the year. A July article in Bloomberg highlighted Ireland, Germany, France, Hong Kong, and Japan as countries increasingly attracting students over the U.S.
What I’m Reading
- In The Dispatch, Mindy Belz juxtaposes the 74% drop in naturalization applications completed under the Trump Administration this year with the beauty of the ceremonies that welcome our new American citizens. “It’s like a betrothal, intimate and moving, a choice rather than a birthright. It’s a moment so singular that a nation once formed of immigrants still brings the nations in its train with each newcomer who takes the oath.”
- The Daily Texan reports on the scaling back of Curricular Practical Training (CPT), a program that allowed international students on visas to apply for internships and other work experience. The Department of Homeland Security issued a guidance memo in August to universities that CPT could only be used when training was integral to the degree’s curriculum. International students at the University of Texas at Austin had previously been able to apply for CPT through an internship course regardless of their major.
- Temporary Protected Status for El Salvador expired on Sept. 9, but U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service announced that Salvadorans in the United States with TPS can retain protection and work authorization. As this is neither a termination nor an extension, Salvadorans remain unsure of their future in the United States.
- The Council on Foreign Relations has updated its country-by-country guide to the second Trump Administration’s travel ban and visa pause. The guide has both maps and tables, providing good data and clear visuals of the impact of these policies.
- The Ministry of Mobility Design makes the political and economic case for employment-based immigration reform, arguing it can secure durable public support for these reforms.
- Five years after the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, Ana Martín Gil at Rice University’s Baker Institute published a brief detailing the limited options for Afghans still seeking freedom and opportunity.
- The Tampa Bay Times tells the stories of Cuban immigrants from Florida who were deported to the Central African Republic (CAR). CAR is a country the State Department warns Americans not to visit because of unrest, crime, kidnapping, and terrorism. The deportees arrived without passports and are unable to request asylum in CAR, which doesn’t have a legal mechanism for that.
- Immigration and Customs Enforcement hired thousands of new officers to support the Trump Administration’s enforcement policies. According to the Washington Post, ICE has been quietly firing new recruits after concerns were raised about adequate vetting and poor performance.
- Approximately 4.5 million migrants arrived in the U.S. via the southern border from October 2018 to July 2025. The Associated Press analyzed the data to show where they came from and where in the United States they settled.
Upcoming Events
- Sept. 29 – Baker Institute for Public Policy: Aiding Autocrats: Migration Management, Governance, and Repression in Africa
- Oct. 15-16 – American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA): 2026 AILA Fall Conference and Webcast
Bush Institute Insights
- In her latest commentary, Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, the Bradford M. Freeman Managing Director of Global Policy, warns that ending TPS for Haiti and South Sudan risks compounding the instability that made the protections necessary in the first place. Trudeau argues that although TPS is temporary by design, returns should be guided by whether countries can safely absorb their citizens without worsening humanitarian, economic, and security pressures.
