The war in Iran may cause U.S. gasoline prices at the pump to average more than $4 a gallon for the first time in almost four years, some industry experts predict – even though the United States doesn’t import any oil from Iran.
In fact, America’s biggest foreign oil suppliers aren’t based in the Middle East at all. Almost 57% of oil and petroleum product imports into the United States last year came from Canada, followed by 6.4% from Mexico, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, part of the Energy Department. Just 8.5% of U.S. imports originated in the Persian Gulf last year – a far cry from 25 years ago, when it supplied 23%.
But the fact that the United States doesn’t directly use much Persian Gulf oil doesn’t shield U.S. consumers from sticker shock. Oil is the most widely traded commodity in the world, refined into products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, and global markets are linked. So supply issues in key parts of the world can be felt at home. This is what’s happening now because the war has essentially halted tankers moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf between Iran and Oman.
The U.S. Energy Department identifies the Strait of Hormuz as one of the world’s most important oil transit “chokepoints” because oil equivalent to about a fifth of the world’s daily consumption passes through the passage on its way to global shipping corridors.
“Large volumes of oil flow through the strait, and, if it were to be closed, alternatives that exist could move only a portion of the oil volumes out of the strait,” according to the Energy Department’s website. There are two pipelines that can serve as workarounds for the strait – one in Saudi Arabia and one in the United Arab Emirates. But these pipelines only have the capacity to move 22% of the oil that usually goes through the strait each day.
The average retail U.S. gasoline price reached $3.539 a gallon on Tuesday, March 10, up from just below $3 before the conflict, and topped $5 in California, according to the American Automobile Association, or AAA. The jump came as the U.S. benchmark oil futures price surged 31% during trading Monday, only to tumble after President Donald Trump warned Iran that it would hit “20 times harder” if it blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, he told CBS News that “the war is very complete” and that he’s considering taking over the strait.
The uncertainty around the conflict and the conditions at the strait may keep prices volatile and elevated for some time, however.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq are among Gulf producers starting to cut oil output because there’s nowhere for it to go and their storage options are filling up, reports showed this week.
Asia is likely to feel most of the pain, since the vast majority of the energy products that transit the strait go to places like China, India, Japan, and South Korea. U.S. oil imports from the countries in the Persian Gulf actually fell to the lowest level in 40 years last year because of a surge in domestic U.S. production, according to the Energy Department.
So the United States isn’t at any immediate risk of gasoline shortages because of lack of oil from the Persian Gulf, as occurred during the OPEC oil embargo of the 1970s. That conflict led to long gas lines. OPEC – the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which includes Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq, as well as Venezuela, Nigeria, and others – provided just 14% of U.S. oil imports in 2025, down from 47% as recently as 2001.
Still, products refined from oil are essential to the global economy, so high oil prices can have a trickle-down effect from industrial costs in addition to affecting what consumers pay to fuel their cars, heat their homes, and fly on a plane. Asphalt and petrochemicals used to make plastics, fertilizer, and other chemicals are all refined from oil.
While President Trump’s comments on the war nearing an end reassured markets that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen sooner rather than later, it will likely take a while for things to return to normal, and gasoline prices could still rise further until the situation is resolved.
Fuel prices typically go up during the spring months anyway, because motorists drive more and refiners switch to summer-blend gasoline, a more expensive, cleaner-burning fuel mandated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
So Americans may still be in for a rollercoaster when it comes to prices.
