Monthly Immigration Update: Jan. 2026

Like many of you, I have been watching the enforcement operations and resulting protests in Minnesota closely. Regardless of how stringently you want immigration law enforced, I think we can all agree that U.S. citizens and non-citizens alike deserve to have their constitutional rights respected. It has been reported that the Trump Administration and the state and local government in Minnesota are communicating directly, and I am hopeful that will result in a reduction in tensions and a restoration of order and accountability.

One year ago, I wrote in this newsletter about what we anticipated seeing from the Trump Administration and Congress and my hope for a conversation about how immigration policy can maximize America’s potential. I’m still waiting for any real attempt at legislative reform to America’s immigration laws to ensure our future prosperity, vitality, and security.

This administration is doing more than immigration enforcement – it is also restricting legal immigration pathways. Last year, more than 100,000 student and worker visas were revoked. Legal protections like Temporary Protected Status and humanitarian parole have been canceled or revoked for over 1.5 million people. And earlier this month, the Department of State announced it was pausing immigrant visa processing for an additional 75 countries. This includes spouses and kids of U.S. citizens and brings the total number of nationalities banned up to 93. The Department of Homeland Security is even reexamining thousands of refugees in Minnesota under what it is calling Operation PARRIS. (Refugees go through extensive vetting before admission to the United States.)

This severe restriction on legal immigration already has consequences. The Congressional Budget Office recently released its demographic projections for the next 30 years. Starting in 2030, annual deaths will exceed annual births. The U.S. population will begin to shrink after 2056. And these numbers assume some immigration. If all immigration stops, our population will begin to shrink in 2030 – only four years away. New Census Bureau numbers offer a similarly poor outlook — from June 30, 2024 to July 1, 2025, the U.S. population grew at a mere 0.5 percent and net immigration fell to 1.3 million people. It is expected to continue to fall to only 321,000 by June 30, 2026.

Many thoughtful Americans have concerns about immigration. The United States should have an immigration policy that benefits Americans, and it is up to all of us to do the hard work of welcoming and integrating newcomers. But shutting down legal migration in such a severe fashion is a shortsighted policy that threatens America’s economic success.

Americans deserve an immigration policy that allows us to continue to compete in the 21st century and beyond. The Bush Institute has solutions, and so do many other thoughtful voices in immigration policy. As citizens, we all must insist that our government focus on what’s best for our country, and that includes keeping the channels open for legal immigrants who will benefit the United States.

Figure of the Month

6, 400

That’s the number of commercial driver’s licenses held by asylum recipients, refugees, and DACA recipients – immigrants with legal work authorization – in Texas due to a new federal rule barring these workers from renewing or obtaining permits.

Data Dive

• Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention reached a new high this month, with 73,000 immigrants in custody per data obtained by CBS News. More than half of these detainees had only immigration law violations, not criminal convictions or charges.

• Venezuelans on Temporary Protected Status benefit the U.S. economy. A new analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) estimates that allowing 616,000 Venezuelans currently with TPS to remain in the United States rather than being deported would increase U.S. GDP by $40.5 billion in 2026 and reduce the federal deficit by $4.5 billion.

What I’m Reading

• The business community is weighing in on the tensions in Minnesota. More than 60 CEOs of Minnesota-based companies call for a “deescalation of tensions” and cooperation on solutions, while Apple CEO Tim Cook struck a similar tone in a message to staff.

• Confused about temporary immigration statuses? National Immigration Forum has a clear explainer to help you get smart on this aspect of immigration law and policy.

• In a Newsweek op-ed, former U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) officials Dorothea Lay, Susan Raufer, Marta Sisco-Izak, Daniel Chin, and Sarah Pierce argue that the changes at USCIS will have far-reaching negative consequences, impacting the agency’s ability to process legal immigration applications for years after this administration leaves office.

• The Department of Homeland Security announced a new regulatory change for foreign-born religious workers. The rule allows religious workers to reapply for re-entry to the U.S. immediately after their visa expires rather than remaining outside the U.S. for a year before returning.

• Reuters has a disturbing report on U.S. deportees who were sent to West African countries before ultimately being returned to the countries they originally fled. Immigrants like Rabbiatu Kuyateh, who won withholding of removal to Sierra Leone, were removed to Ghana instead of the countries they feared. Ghana deported her to Sierra Leone anyway, forcing her to flee for her safety once again.

• U.S. citizens are increasingly joining the military to protect undocumented parents through a little-known program called Parole in Place, which shields the families of service members from deportation and offers them a path to legal status.

• The tragic shooting and killing of U.S. citizens Renee Good and Alex Pretti by ICE and CBP agents in Minneapolis, Minn., earlier this month have generated a lot of conversation on the immigration enforcement tactics used by the Department of Homeland Security. Other tactics related to arrests and detention have been documented in the last year. Below are a few articles discussing the use of chokeholds, deaths in custody, and racial profiling.
  • A 16-year-old U.S. citizen in Houston was put in a chokehold by ICE agents as they were arresting his undocumented father. “I felt like I was going to pass out and die,” said Arnoldo Bazan. A ProPublica investigation found more than 40 other cases in the past year where immigration agents used chokeholds – banned by many police departments – and other dangerous techniques that cut off breathing.
• • There were dozens of deaths in ICE detention facilities in 2025. One recent death in a facility near El Paso, Texas, was ruled a homicide by county officials.
• • KSTP-TV’s 5 Eyewitness News reported on local Minneapolis police saying that ICE wrongly stopped off-duty officers of color during a major immigration operation, raising concerns about aggressive tactics and racial profiling. ICE denies targeting police, but city and state leaders warn the actions are harming trust between law enforcement and the community.

Bush Institute Insights

• The Bush Institute released a statement for the record for the Senate Judiciary Committee’s joint hearing on the Afghan parolee program. The statement highlights the importance of humanitarian parole and other immigration pathways, calls for immigration reform with strong security checks, and urges a broader strategy to address Taliban threats.