Read

The time to plan for Venezuela’s transition is now

By
Learn more about Nicole Bibbins Sedaca.
Nicole Bibbins Sedaca
Kelly and David Pfeil Fellow
George W. Bush Institute
The flag of Venezuela on a map. (Shutterstock/Rokas Tenys)

Now is the time to push for the friendly, stable, prosperous, democratic Venezuela that the Trump Administration has said it wants.

This type of Venezuela – which Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for in recent Senate testimony – is in the best interests of both the United States and the Venezuelan people. But any delay in taking the steps to bring it about will further ensconce an autocratic regime that has sown instability in Venezuela and the region.

The administration’s decision to work with the regime of Delcy Rodriquez, the former vice president of now-imprisoned Nicolás Maduro, is understandable in the short term, to achieve initial U.S. economic goals. But this regime isn’t stable, prosperous, or democratic and is only occasionally friendly to the United States. Most importantly, it wasn’t chosen by the Venezuelan people.

Still, the United States can make several key demands of the regime to ensure a transition to democracy and a set a path toward a Venezuela that will be a constructive partner with the United States.

The Rodriguez administration’s response to these necessary steps will test how trustworthy the regime will be even in its interim caretaker role:

First, all political prisoners must be released immediately and unconditionally.

The late January release of scores of prisoners was a positive, overdue step, as was the release of more people following Rodriquez’s Jan. 30 announcement that she will close the infamous Helicoide prison. This prison has been the site of unspeakable torture and abuse of political opponents and civil society leaders, and its announced closure is essential.

There is a risk that even though Helicoide will be closed, only some of the more than 700 unjustly detained people would be released. If this comes to pass, it will signal that the Rodriguez Administration is using these innocent people as pawns in its relations with the United States – that it’s not willing to end the Maduro-era crackdown on legitimate democratic actors.

The remaining political prisoners are civil society leaders, politicians, and activists, some affiliated with democratic opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado’s Vente Venezuela party. Their continued detention would allow Rodriquez and her cronies to show that their Maduro-style leadership won’t be met with any pushback by the United States. And this would make it appear that the United States supports a government that silences, jails and tortures civil society.

Second, all Venezuelans exiled for their political activism should be allowed to return. Machado, Edmundo Gonzalez, Leopoldo Lopez, and other activists and leaders who were forced into exile must be allowed to go back to their homes freely. The United States cannot credibly claim to support a nation on the path to democracy when those who have dedicated their lives to democracy aren’t allowed to set foot in their own country.

Third, restrictions on civil society, political parties, and media must be lifted immediately and fully. The Rodriquez regime has continued the Maduro-era restrictions on freedom of speech, assembly, press, and association. It has kept in place many of the harsh limits on free media and continues to control a strong pro-regime communication environment for the Venezuelan people.

The state-sponsored disinformation campaigns continue to push false and misleading information to Venezuelan and international audiences to shape the narrative about the regime. The 2024 NGO law adopted by the National Assembly continues to restrict activity by nongovernmental organizations and places administrative obstacles on independent civil society groups. It should be repealed.

Since Maduro’s ouster, countless numbers of people have been arrested for peaceful protests, including in support of the United States, and many journalists were arrested and released after questioning and having their materials confiscated.

The continued harassment and mistreatment of peaceful protesters and journalists signals that Rodriquez isn’t fully committed to a path to democracy or may not be fully in charge. But it also serves as a reminder that the United States must push for the lifting of restrictions on civil society, political parties, and media.

Finally, legal and administrative steps must be taken to prepare for free and fair nationwide elections for leadership at all levels, national and local. There are several paths to holding an election, each with different timelines ranging from six to 18 months. Among these steps is a revamping of the National Commission on Elections (CNE) to ensure it has the capability and trust of the citizenry to run these elections in a free and fair manner. The ban on political parties must be lifted, and candidates must be able to start organizing.

The Venezuelan people voted overwhelmingly in 2024 for change; Maduro disregarded their ballots. They are eager to know the specific date when they will have an election that will determine their future.

Each of these steps is a path toward a friendly, stable, prosperous, and democratic Venezuela. And each must be taken now to ensure that that end state isn’t too far away – and that the Venezuelan people, not the Maduro successors, will decide the fate of their country and well-being.