Our thoughts, prayers, and tremendous gratitude are with the brave men and women of the U.S. Armed Forces who are facing continued Iranian assaults as they seek, through the ongoing operation, to advance American national security. We also thank U.S. diplomats who are working tirelessly to help evacuate and support American citizens in the region, while they themselves are in harm’s way.
For 47 years, the extremist, theocratic regime in Iran has meant serious harm to the United States and translated the chant of “death to America” into action – from the seizure of the U.S. Embassy compound on Nov. 4, 1979, to the many terrorist attacks against U.S. and allied targets. No one should shed any tears that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is no longer ruling the country.
It is in U.S. interests to support efforts – distant though they may seem now – to transition Iran away from its brutal, extremist, authoritarian current state and toward a more democratic form of government. People around the world, if given the opportunity, prefer to live in freedom – and Iranians are no exception. Such a transformation would reduce Iran as a threat to the United States and allies in the region and around the world.
Continuation of the autocratic regime with a different titular figure will merely continue to sow internal instability and regional insecurity, undermining American long-term interests in a region beset by fragility and violence. It would also diminish the sacrifice made by our men and women in combat.
What comes next, however, will be momentous. Will Iranians for the first time in decades have the opportunity to move toward a more representative, democratic form of government? What impact will the war against Iran have on the region and globally? Not quite one week into the war against the Iranian regime, we offer some observations and context amid a very fluid situation.
A brutal, repressive, and dangerous regime
This war has stirred deep passions and serious policy debates in the United States. Such disagreements are part of a healthy national dialogue in a democracy. What shouldn’t be a point of contention in these debates, however, is the character and actions of the Iranian regime.
Iran is one of the world’s least free countries and its people are brutalized by their government and have been for decades. The Islamic republic has earned a consistently dismal ranking for its political rights and civil liberties by Freedom House – the nonprofit democracy watchdog. This was true before the recent military action.
In the last few years alone, Tehran has committed several mass atrocities against its own people. In January, the regime responded to nationwide protests by slaughtering thousands of its own citizens. While the total number of fatalities is murky, given government efforts to suppress information, one report suggests it could be more than 30,000 people.
Before that, in fall of 2022, the regime crushed the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement that spread across the country. Rooted in government oppression of female citizens, the movement was a response to the death of Mahsa Amini. Amini, who was “guilty” of violating the Islamic dress code, died while in the custody of Iran’s morality police. Women across the country took to the streets, ripping off headscarves and calling for change. One U.N. report concluded that the regime’s crackdown on female protesters included depraved sexual violence.
Far too many Iranians have suffered wrongful imprisonment, torture, rape, and untold abuse. Tens of thousands of Iranians have died fighting for freedom in the Green Movement of 2009-2010, the Women-Life-Freedom Movement begun in 2022, and the more recent street protests. Many Iranians celebrated the removal of their repressive leadership; their desire for freedom is evident.
Iran’s leadership, driven by its insatiable disdain for the United States and Israel, has projected its murderous ways outside the country, too. As the leading state sponsor of terror, the ayatollah claimed the lives of thousands of Americans and others through terror attacks, missile launches, and the Oct. 7, 2023, assault against Israeli civilians.
In the 1950s through 1970s, Iran had a regime friendly to the United States, but brutally repressive and abusive to its citizens. The Islamic Revolution of the late 1970s – including the seizing of American diplomats as hostages for 444 days – was driven in part to unseat a U.S.-supported dictator who suppressed human rights, including freedom of religion, speech, and the press and widely used torture, unjust imprisonment, and other illiberal tactics.
All this serves as a reminder that the nature of governments and regimes matters. Those regimes that are willing to murder their own citizens with impunity are also those that pose the greatest threat to American interest and global stability.
Successive American presidents – including most recently President Donald Trump – have pledged their backing to the courageous Iranian people who have long demanded their freedom. We should support internal stability and protection of human rights by backing Iranians’ desire for a democratic transition that honors citizens seeking a safer world. Our job does not end when the guns and missiles go silent.
Repercussions beyond the Gulf
America’s actions in Iran, our next steps there, and the trajectory of the current war will shape the global understanding of U.S. leadership, reliability, and values for years to come. This conflict serves as a reminder of the importance of maintaining strong, loyal allies who stand with us in times of need.
Iranian missile and drone strikes targeting America’s partners in the Middle East – Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and others – have pulled countries that initially attempted to remain neutral directly into the conflict. These countries are facing blows to civilian targets: Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery has been reportedly taken offline, ports and airports in Kuwait and Dubai have been struck, and attacks on hotels in Bahrain and Dubai have all highlighted the vulnerability of these regional – and international – economic hubs.
These attacks have shown the extent to which countries in the region rely on U.S. security guarantees, while also highlighting what some could perceive as risk for their traditional hosting of U.S. bases.
The effects of the war are being felt beyond the Gulf region. Major shipping lines have suspended or rerouted traffic amid the effective closure and insecurity around the Strait of Hormuz, with knock-on effects for insurance and freight rates. The strait, located between Iran and Oman, forms the mouth of the Persian Gulf. All ships coming from the Gulf must traverse the strait to get to the open ocean and global shipping corridors.
Energy markets are already responding to Gulf infrastructure risk and disrupted flows; oil prices continue to rise. The conflict is already impacting energy markets globally, particularly in Europe and East Asia, where U.S. allies such as Japan and South Korea depend heavily on Gulf energy supplies.
Conversely, countries that previously relied on Iranian crude, especially major importers like China and India, may turn to Russian oil, and, if global oil supply tightens, Western countries may face pressure to relax or circumvent restrictions on Russian energy to stabilize markets. That would be bad news for Ukraine. Additionally, if this conflict drags on and the U.S. depletes its stockpiles of air defense missiles, there could be a critical shortage of materiel provided through an initiative by European nations to purchase U.S.-made weapons for Ukraine.
While European governments have largely called for restraint and renewed negotiations with Iran, emphasizing the risks of regional escalation and the importance of a diplomatic solution, Russia and China have condemned the U.S. and Israeli strikes and voiced support for the Islamic republic. American credibility will rest on what comes next, including ensuring the voices of the people of Iran are heard as they might finally have the opportunity to plan their own future.
The longer this conflict lasts, the greater the risk it will widen via Iran’s network of regional partners and proxies, weakened though these malevolent actors have become.
Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group backed by Iran, has resumed rocket fire against Israel after a year-long pause, while Iraqi militias have reportedly targeted U.S. facilities in Iraq as well as Gulf nations. The Houthis, an Iranian-supported rebel group in Yemen, have condemned the U.S. and Israeli strikes, but haven’t, as of today, resumed large-scale attacks on Red Sea shipping as they did after the October 2023 attack on Israel and subsequent Gaza war.
European countries, as well as nations well outside the Middle East in Asia, have raised concerns about lone wolf attacks and rogue actors conducting terror operations in solidarity with Iran. NATO air defenses also shot down an Iranian missile headed toward NATO ally Turkey’s airspace, reportedly targeting Incirlik Air Base, which hosts U.S. forces. Azerbaijan, a U.S. ally, said drones launched from Iran hit a regional airport in that country.
The United States – and, more importantly, the American people – have already spent significant resources and lost six American service members so far. It is in U.S. interests to support those in Iran who seek a better, more democratic future for their country.
Countries that respect the rights of their citizens – and that are accountable to them – pose less of a danger to the United States. The threats we face around the world come from extremist, authoritarian leaders who rely on blaming outside powers, especially the United States, for justifying their crackdowns at home to stay in power. That certainly has been the case for almost five decades in Iran.
Developments in the Middle East continue to shake the broader global system. The world – our allies, our adversaries, and the people of Iran – are watching the trajectory of this conflict, how success is defined, and what comes next. American credibility and leadership rest on the steps America takes now, and the ones we will take tomorrow.
