Amidst the global tumult in these first weeks of 2026, some trends remain consistent. Dictators continue to sow instability that undermines American security and interests. Courageous democracy defenders around the world are challenging those dictators, fighting for freedom, rule of law, and security in their country and region. The transition from autocracy to democracy is challenging, to say the least, and the direction a country takes will have profound impact on the United States’ interests.
The United States must prioritize the support for these democracy defenders and the democratization of nations in transition, given the clear impact on our nation. Venezuela and Iran are clear examples of the diverse paths countries could take that will determine how significant the threat – or opportunity – will be for American security, the global economy, and human lives.
In Venezuela, recently arrested dictator Nicolas Maduro was unquestionably a brutal, corrupt dictator and a scourge on Venezuelans and the hemisphere. His corruption and repression forced nearly 8 million Venezuelans to flee since 2014. The Venezuelan economy has contracted by more than 70% since 2013. He has fueled narcotics trafficking, including the inflow of devastating drugs into the United States.
Democratic leaders like Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez, the Venezuelan opposition leader who won the 2024 election but was forced into exile by Maduro, are Venezuela’s best chance to lead toward good governance, economic growth, rule of law, and security. They are most likely to provide the United States a stable partner that will protect the legal business climate needed for American investment, partnership and security.
In Iran, since January 8, the Iranian people have flooded the streets to protest the economic disarray and unrelenting repression; their voices are being met with brutal crackdown. The death count is overwhelming with estimates ranging from the Iranian government’s estimate of 2000 to 12000 and even as high 20,000. Also, over 10,000 have been arrested. The regime has shuttered the internet, an oft-used technique of autocratic regimes, and is targeting people using Starlink to remain connected and seek help.
Iran continues to support terrorist organizations in the Middle East that threaten the United States and many nations in the region. It remains closely aligned with Russia and China. And its nuclear ambitions – deterred by U.S. strikes but not eliminated – continue to pose a dangerous threat to U.S. interests.
There are robust diaspora and in-country democratic opposition groups, which have courageously worked since the Green Revolution and the Women-Life-Freedom movements. While there is no clear singular leader, as there is in Venezuela, these democracy defenders need and deserve international support. The Iranian regime will not hold power indefinitely, and it is essential that the next leaders be democratically-oriented, manage the Iranian economy responsibly, end support to terrorist organizations, and invest in the needs of the Iranian people. Whether Iran moves toward stability, security, and democratic governance or stays on the track of authoritarianism, economic mismanagement, and repression will determine the direction of the Middle East and American interests in this region.
Around the world, the United States already wields significant political and economic pressure – and now military might – against autocrats and in times of political transition. These powerful tools must be used in conjunction with strong and sustained American support for democratic leadership in the country. The price tag of aiding democratic activists and political transition is a small fraction of what it costs to use these other tools. Prioritizing support for activists also minimizes the pressure to use other tools.
For decades, the United States has led in international democracy work, including supporting democracy defenders such as Machado. American assistance has not been about picking winners, forcing democracy on people, or stoking dissent. It has been about responding to the activists’ calls for assistance in their struggle for freedom. American partnership has been rooted in the fact that democratic leadership and stability in other nations is deeply aligned with American values.
The American democracy support community has been hit hard by the recent cuts in foreign assistance funding. In partnership with American democracy experts, Congress and the philanthropic community should expand American capacity to bolster international activists, increase the dissemination of credible information to closed societies, expand access to the internet, and back democratic transitions. Members of the U.S. Congress should clearly articulate a vision for and hold the Administration accountable for supporting democratic leadership in Venezuela and other nations in transition. This is the moment to build on the long track record of democracy assistance and develop new, more nimble approaches that could benefit countries struggling under dictatorial rule where U.S. interests are at stake.
There are common critiques of American democracy support, none of which negates the need for a refreshed and strategic approach to this necessary capability. First, the United States shouldn’t do nation building. Democracy assistance is not nation building; it is aiding existing domestic actors that are driving their own democratic agenda. Strategic democracy assistance does not seek to address issues of economic viability, security capacity, or social infrastructure, but rather seeks to support democratic, accountable governance to allow others to rebuild their own nation in a sustainable way.
Second, the United States should not pick leaders of other countries. Democracy assistance is about backing a broad array of leaders that align with American and international values of democracy and free markets.
Third, the global decline in democracy makes supporting activists a losing battle. While autocrats are working harder, so too is the vibrant international network of democracy activists, in part because of the important support from American organizations. They are facing significant challenges from Beijing, Moscow and their partners, but they continue their fight. Change takes time and doesn’t happen overnight.
Autocrats will continue to threaten American interests, and political transitions will continue to unfold globally. The United States has a crucial choice as to whether it will meet both with robust support for democracy. Neglecting either is tantamount to passively accepting autocratic threats to American interests or to allowing a political transition which will impact American interests to unfold without any input.
