Bush Institute Monthly Immigration Update

Hello, Friends.

 

With a new presidential administration and new Congress imminent, I’ve been thinking about which immigration policy changes of the last four years I hope continue.

Overall, the policy changes we’ve seen have been a mixed bag, and the executive branch has had to do too much. But some of the changes were positive and should continue in the next administration. Refugee resettlement ramped back up, and Welcome Corps – private sponsorship of refugees – has been a much-needed innovation. Safe Mobility Offices are a serious attempt to work with our allies in the Western Hemisphere and implement regional solutions to migration challenges. The new administration should build on that foundation.

Close security cooperation with our regional allies – especially Panama and Mexico – is also beneficial. Mexico specifically has taken a sizeable role in diverting migrants from the U.S.-Mexico border. Continued partnership in the region will be important to ensure orderly and humane migration rather than a migration crisis.

 

Kind regards,

Laura

Figure of the Month

35.8%

Data Dive

 

• In 2024, children and families comprised 43% of migrants encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border, the second-highest share ever recorded, according to an analysis by the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA). This was one of five key trends identified in this year's data on migration and border security. WOLA also found that border security changes temporarily reduced migration numbers but raised significant human rights concerns, and while overall migrant deaths decreased, the death rate relative to the migrant population remained high.

• According to a report from the University of Michigan, 48% of migrants to the U.S. experienced gun-related threats or violence in their home countries. Among men from Honduras, Venezuela, and El Salvador, nearly 73% reported being victims of violent crimes such as robberies, extortion, or kidnappings. This study provides interesting details for the lack of public safety that often drives people to migrate to safer countries.

• The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) projects that remittances, a key driver of poverty reduction and migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), will grow by 5% in 2024, marking the slowest rate in a decade. This reflects a mix of positive and negative factors: Improved local economies have reduced dependence on remittances, while currency devaluation has weakened the purchasing power of funds sent home.

What I'm Reading

 

• The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump Administration has alarmed some supporters by tempering expectations on their deportation plans. Despite campaign promises to deport tens of millions of immigrants, the incoming administration is currently striking a more realistic tone, indicating it has logistical constraints and will focus on convicted criminals first.

• The Brookings Institution, Niskanen Center, and AEI updated their joint pre-election analysis and found that under president-elect Trump, restrictive immigration policies could reduce 2025 GDP growth by up to 0.4 percentage points, or $110 billion. America’s demographic and economic future depends on robust immigration policy. The more restrictive policies proposed by the incoming administration will hinder American growth and productivity.

• Despite comprising only 8% of the global population, Latin America and the Caribbean account for a staggering one-third of worldwide homicides, driven by transnational criminal organizations and the illicit firearms trade, according to a recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The escalating insecurity in the region contributes to increased migration flows as individuals and families flee their home countries to escape the pervasive violence and instability.

• In a straightforward piece, Frank Sharry and Cecilia Muñoz argue a path forward for Democrats on immigration policy that will sound comfortingly vintage to many who read this newsletter. “Democrats need to insist on more control and more compassion; more order and more immigration; strict limits and wider legal pathways.” Their recommendations are refreshingly nonpartisan – just solid immigration policy that benefits America. I hope that more than just Democrats listen and these recommendations can form the basis of a renewed bipartisan consensus on immigration reform.

• I appeared on CNN This Morning Weekend to provide insights into the significant logistical and financial challenges associated with large-scale deportation plans.

• In this Bush Institute article, I highlighted the economic contributions of undocumented immigrants and the impracticality of mass deportation, emphasizing the need for viable pathways to citizenship.

• I also commented on the logistical and diplomatic challenges of large-scale deportations in a recent KERA News article.

• I recently spoke with Rena Diamante of Spectrum News to highlight the legal and operational standards required for detention centers, especially to protect vulnerable populations like families and children.

• My Bush Institute colleagues just released new policy recommendations earlier this month for Congress and the Trump Administration on how to help Ukraine win the unprovoked war Vladimir Putin started.

• Chris Walsh, Director of Global Policy at the Bush Institute, shared some helpful advice for tackling heated topics during the holiday season. The trick, he says, is to make sure that you're actually listening to understand and beginning the conversation with an open mindset. Don’t try to win the conversation – just be curious.

• Something fun: The Bush Center’s annual holiday decorations bring us so much joy this time of year – take a peek!

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