Bush Institute Monthly Immigration Update

Hello, Friends.

 

The U.S. economy has lost millions of foreign workers since January 2025. This is likely due in part to Trump Administration enforcement policies which have stripped legal work authorization from immigrants with parole or temporary protected status. These enforcement policies continue at a robust pace, with no apparent plan to replace these workers with other legal migrants.

With this many foreign-born workers leaving, it might be tempting to assume that there are now millions of open jobs for native-born American workers. The August jobs data was paltry, however, with a mere 22,000 jobs created. This continues a trend of a softening labor market in 2025. Indeed, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted the labor market when addressing the recent quarter-point rate cut. “The marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers is unusual in this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market,” he said. “The downside risks to employment appear to have risen.”

It’s not just the jobs data; other parts of the economy are, to use a technical term, iffy at the moment.

The economy is complicated, of course. Neither the broader uncertainty nor the meager job creation can be attributed wholly to current U.S. immigration policy. But we know that immigration benefits our economy, and, in certain industries, it’s essential to ensure an adequate labor force.

Immigration enforcement is a necessary component of immigration policy, but it is not a jobs program. Enforcement doesn’t benefit economic growth (and is projected to shrink the economy when done at a large enough scale). That is why it’s imperative that enforcement policies are paired with robust legal immigration policies to welcome the workers American businesses need.

 

Kind regards,

Laura

Figure of the Month

70.8%

Data Dive

 

• Eighty-three percent of construction firms are struggling to fill open positions for craft workers, according to the latest workforce survey conducted by the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) and the National Center for Construction Education & Research (NCCER). The survey also found that more than one-quarter of construction firms reported being affected by stepped up immigration enforcement.

• Only 3% of immigrants have been incarcerated compared to 11% of the native born population, according to a new analysis of immigrant criminality (or really, lack thereof) by Cato’s Alex Nowrasteh and Krit Chanwong.

What I'm Reading

 

• In The Diplomat, Gil Guerra and Claire Holba write about the economic and national security implications of the recent Hyundai battery raid in Georgia. “While labor law violations deserve serious enforcement, the current approach of militarized workplace raids actively undermines U.S. economic and national security interests by making it nearly impossible for even the closest U.S. allies to comply with a byzantine immigration system.”

• The Dallas Morning News published an editorial questioning the wisdom of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services’ new rule banning nonprofits from providing voter registration at naturalization ceremonies. “Naturalization ceremonies are a celebration of what it means to be American. Registering to vote is a core civic duty that our government should champion.”

• The drop in the foreign-born labor force didn’t translate into better outcomes for American workers, Stuart Anderson, Executive Director of the National Foundation for American Policy, wrote for Forbes. Over the past six months, the unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers increased to 4.6% from 4.3%, confirming what a large body of research had already established: A reduction in foreign workers doesn’t produce economic benefit for the U.S.-born workforce.

• In The New York Times, Lydia DePillis reported on employers in South Florida struggling to fill positions previously occupied by undocumented workers.

• Bloomberg Law analyzed dozens of company filings and discovered that firms are increasingly worried about recruiting challenges, civil fines, and criminal investigations caused by immigration enforcement: “If you get raided and they arrest a couple thousand of your employees, now you’re out of business tomorrow,” said Chris Thomas, partner at Holland & Hart LLP's immigration law practice.

Bush Institute Insights

 

• In a recent episode of The Strategerist podcast, host Andrew Kaufmann and D’Juan Wilcher, Bush Institute Deputy Director of Veterans and Military Families, were joined by Salim Asrawi, President and Co-Founder of Texas de Brazil, now the largest steakhouse in the world. They discussed Asrawi’s journey from immigrant to successful entrepreneur, his dedication to community service and helping others, and his hope for the future.

Upcoming Events:

 

• Oct. 9 – Migration Policy Institute: 22nd Annual Immigration Law and Policy Conference

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