A myriad of factors including crime, institutional weakness, and even COVID-19 are pushing Central Americans to migrate to the U.S. However, there is a sense in which demography truly is destiny, and many of these other conditions have their roots in the region’s demographics.
A complicated mix of push and pull factors are driving thousands of Central American children to flee poverty and violence and make the long, dangerous journey to the United States in search of safety and opportunity.
One of the most significant push factors—what drives someone to leave their home— in the Northern Triangle is its demographic composition. Specifically, the region, compromised of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, has a much younger working age population than wealthier economies such as the U.S.
Per the United Nations, 30% of people in Guatemala and Honduras, and 28% of people in El Salvador, are between the ages of 15 and 29 (what The World Bank considers youth and young adults). In the U.S., only 20% of the population falls in that age bracket. What is more, the youth and young adult population has been surging in the Northern Triangle over the past two decades. It has grown 51% since 2000, versus growth of only 16% in the U.S.
Unfortunately, the surge of young people has not coincided with a surge of opportunity. A full 28% of people between the ages of 15-29 in El Salvador and Honduras were not in education, employment, or training as of 2019, according to the World Bank. In other words, they were idle. In Guatemala, 27% were idle as of 2017 (the latest year available). In the U.S., only 13% were idle as of 2019.
El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras score in the bottom quartile on the George W. Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth’s Global Competitiveness Scorecard’s Business Environment measure, which includes measures such as innovation, ease of starting a business, and labor market efficiency. Each of the Northern Triangle countries has seen their business environment score decrease since 2007. In the most extreme case, El Salvador’s score decreased 24 points, from the 42nd percentile in 2007 to the 18th percentile in 2020. Along with other factors, a weak business environment means there are not enough jobs are available to employ young people entering adulthood and looking for work—holding the region back economically.
-
Jun 25, 2025America thrives when immigration worksBy: Laura Collins
-
Jun 24, 2025Monthly Immigration Update: June 2025By: Laura Collins
-
Meet the Veteran Wellness Alliance: Centerstone’s Military Services
-
Rear Admiral Michael Giorgione, CEC, USN (Ret.) — Camp David and Beyond: From Military to Civilian LeadershipHosted by: Andrew Kaufmann, D’Juan Wilcher, Lieutenant Commander, USNR
-
Blayne Smith — Perseverance, Endurance, and the Special ForcesHosted by: Andrew Kaufmann, Jason Galui, Lieutenant Colonel, USA (Ret.)
-
Jun 11, 2025My Grandfather’s American dreamBy: Caroline Bergonia
-
Jun 10, 2025States Can Help End the U.S. Housing Crisis Through Smart PoliciesBy: J.H. Cullum Clark
-
Jun 9, 2025Cities Must Address the Housing Crisis to Retain and Attract ResidentsBy: J.H. Cullum Clark
-
May 28, 2025Why small cities near metros present opportunity and affordabilityBy: J.H. Cullum Clark
-
Meet the Veteran Wellness Alliance – The Mission Continues
-
May 22, 2025Monthly Immigration Update: May 2025By: Laura Collins
-
We’ve got the watchBy: D’Juan Wilcher, Lieutenant Commander, USNR
-
How two Stand-To Veteran Leadership Program alums combat the silence surrounding veterans' mental health
-
May 5, 2025Two Minute Take: Texas Senate Bill 2: New Education Savings Account Program launching in 2026Featuring: Robin Berkley
-
Apr 30, 2025An Overview of School Choice: Charters, Magnets, Educational Savings Accounts, and MoreBy: Robin Berkley, Nina Rees
-
Go `outside the wire’ and engage in community to escape `fictional fear’By: Jason Galui, Lieutenant Colonel, USA (Ret.)
-
Apr 29, 2025Texas education is stronger when student outcomes drive policyBy: Robin Berkley
-
Honoring Month of the Military Child through service and leadership
-
Higher Education and DemocracyHosted by: Robin Berkley
-
Apr 25, 2025We must fight for our Afghan alliesBy: Natalie Gonnella-Platts, Laura Collins
-
Apr 24, 2025Forum on Leadership 2025: Higher Education and Democracy
-
Apr 24, 2025Forum on Leadership 2025: Only in America
-
Only in AmericaHosted by: Ken Hersh, Anne Wicks
-
Apr 21, 2025Monthly Immigration Update: April 2025By: Laura Collins
-
Apr 23, 2025How immigration fuels the U.S. economy
-
Apr 23, 2025The Policy Implications of the IRS-ICE Data Sharing AgreementBy: Laura Collins
-
Apr 21, 2025Robert Edsel -- Remembering Our Fallen Service Members from WWII to Modern TimesHosted by: Andrew Kaufmann, Jason Galui, Lieutenant Colonel, USA (Ret.)
-
Apr 15, 2025Meet the Veteran Wellness Alliance: The Road Home Program at Rush University Medical Center in Chicago, Illinois
-
Apr 14, 2025America could have avoided most of its housing crisis with Sun Belt-like growth policiesBy: J.H. Cullum Clark
-
Apr 14, 2025U.S. immigration processes need to be overhauled, not floutedBy: Laura Collins